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Effect of El Niño and La Niña



What Are El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are both effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. About every 3-5 years, the surface temperatures in the Pacific equatorial region fluctuate to the point where the temperatures are either above the average (El Niño) or below the average (La Niña). A long time ago, fishermen in South America noticed the warmer Pacific water temperatures that peaked around December. They named it El Niño de Navidad which was shortened to just El Niño (the little boy) later. La Niña (the little girl) is just the opposite and is marked by a period of colder waters in the Pacific equatorial region.

El Niño

El Niño Pattern (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html)

El Niño weakens the trade winds which pushes the warmer waters to the east causing the warming of the Pacific waters which in turn causes the jet stream in the Pacific to move south of its normal position. This movement causes the northern US and Canada to experience warmer and drier weather than normal. It also causes the southern US to experience warmer and wetter weather than normal.

La Niña

La Niña Pattern (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html)

La Niña strengthens the trade winds pushing the warmer waters to the west. This pushing of the waters to the west causes the colder water to be drawn up from deeper in the Pacific causing a cooling of the eastern Pacific. This cooling pushes the jet stream to the north causing wetter weather in the northern US and Canada and warmer, drier weather in the southern US. Sometimes the La Niña conditions will even cause widespread drought in the southern US. La Niña also causes ideal conditions for the formation of tropical cyclones.

El Niño to La Niña Transition

The transition from El Niño to La Niña usually predicts a busier hurricane season than normal. As the gap between the end of El Niño and the beginning of La Niña shrinks, the intensity of that season is predicted to increase. The 2024 season was one of those events.

Resources

What are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)
El Niño/La Niña Information
2024 Season, a Look Back
Hurricanes Florence, Helene, and Isaac during the 2024 season.



The 2024 hurricane season for the Atlantic was a very busy one. Initial predictions in MAY, 2024 were that we would see around 23 Named Storms with 11 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes. Predictions were adjusted when the Atlantic Ocean experienced a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) which calmed the activity for most of the month of July. A SAL is a layer of dust that comes off of the Saharan desert, Morocco in this case, and creates a dampening effect on storm formation in the Atlantic (see image below).

Saharan Air Layer.

The season had one of the slowest starts since 2014 with the first named storm, Alberto, not forming until 19 JUL. Alberto was followed, though, by Beryl which reached CAT 5 strength. Beryl was the earliest to reach CAT 4 and then CAT 5 in recorded history. The season had a pause in July but picked back up in early August with Debbie. August stayed fairly mild with only two named storms.

September activity picked back up with 6 named storms during the month which included Helene. Helene’s path took it along the gulf coast of Florida pushing water into the coastal areas and bringing damaging winds along the gulf coast. The widespread debris and flooding caused an issue when Milton, which had strengthened to the second CAT 5 in the season, was heading towards the same areas effected by Helene. Emergency debris clearance operations were started to minimize the amount of loose materials in the areas in order to mitigate damage from flying debris.

Sara was the final named storm of 2024 but it only made it to Tropical Storm strength. Overall, there were 18 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes, and 5 Major Hurricanes in 2024, not much different from the predictions for the number of Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes. The 2024 season was the second most costly Atlantic hurricane season in history with over $227.3 billion in damages. The final tally will be well over that once the last of the assessments are processed and could put 2024 close to or more than the 2017 season which holds the top honors currently.

RankCostSeason
1≥ $294.803 billion2017
2> $227.3 billion2024
3$172.297 billion2005
4$117.708 billion2022
5≥ $80.827 billion2021
6$72.341 billion2012
7$61.148 billion2004
8$54.336 billion2020
9≥ $50.526 billion2018
10≥ $48.855 billion2008

In the end, the 2024 season saw 9 named storms, half of the total named storms, during the last 2 months of the season with 3 active storms at one point in time. A strong finish to a very busy season, even with a very quiet July and August.